This is Hillary’s Waterloo

Isn’t Hillary the most capable person on the planet of “putting it all out on the table,” as she’s demanding of Comey and the FBI with regard to the renewed investigation into her emails? These emails are either hers or her personal aide’s. Why wait for the FBI to couch the situation in their terms, scandalous or not, versus get ahead of the announcement and anticipate what the FBI will find?
 
I would bet money that the reason is she knows there is damning evidence lying around, but she doesn’t know for sure if the FBI has found it. She cannot say, like any sensible public relations pro would advise, that she’s confident the FBI will find nothing seriously wrong – that there is nothing to worry about or, at the very least, that Huma is on leave until this matter is settled, and that she will be fired if she is found to be in violation of the law. There is, frankly, no way Huma doesn’t know what’s on the devices she failed to turn over. If I’m wrong, then it simply shows gross negligence on her part – yet another Hillary operative who will be forced to resign.
 
There is a lot going on with regard to this investigation, if only you are willing to consider that possibility. I’m talking to my liberal friends who openly support Hillary on Facebook daily yet have made almost no mention of this scandal whatsoever, or have spun it up to be a political move on behalf of Obama-appointed Comey. Consider that House Republicans have yet to move in response to several concerning emails revealed by Wikileaks or several FEC violations exposed by James O’Keefe. You may not like those sources, but their documents and video are real, and they’ve led to resignations. The reason Republicans have yet to move on these is because they are waiting – if Trump wins, they drop it; if Hillary wins, investigations commence immediately. This is such an obviously advantageous course of action for them – I think any intelligent person can understand that.
 
Consider Comey’s letter in light of that. If you really believe he was politically motivated and working with DC Republicans, then why would he do this now, when House Republicans and the DOJ obviously are not interested in investigating Hillary? Why not wait until after she wins (unless you believe he wants Donald Trump to be the President – a fair enough position)?
 
I don’t believe Comey was politically motivated. In fact, I’m more inclined to believe he was influenced not by Republicans, but by Democrats who are concerned about what will happen after Hillary wins – what new rigorous investigations into the plethora of new evidence that has yet to be brought up will reveal about Hillary and how she won. This would be devastating for Democrats in 2018 and beyond.
 
The biggest issue here, though, is that I think those with real influence believe Hillary is done. I think Obama, Biden, Senate Democrats, Comey, etc. believes she’s done, win or not. She’s become a joke, and her supporters are not enthusiastic. Of course, some of her supporters love her, but the fact is that her rallies are tiny. Her running mate is canceling rallies because of low attendance. She is generally disliked, even by a large portion of those who plan to vote for her. This is indisputable. And she has unfortunately shown no ability to refresh her connection with the American people – her speeches have become very stale, she rarely takes questions, she appears sickly. She will enter office as one of the most disliked people in America, and if history is any guide, her approval rating will go only south from there. She’s called half the country “deplorable” – millions of people she expects to govern. She has made some big mistakes that, whether she wins the vote or not, have irreparably damaged her ability to govern effectively. And this new email scandal, about which her campaign is so obviously worried, is the final blow.

My 2016 election predictions

Last June I predicted Hillary would win the Democratic nomination. Also predicted that Bernie would come close. Also predicted Scott Walker would bore, struggle in the debates, and get nowhere. Also predicted Christie would “either shine or bomb” (funny enough, he sort-of did both).

All of that was correct.

I also predicted Jeb would win the GOP nomination. Oops.

Got lots right, but one big thing wrong. That said, here are my updated predictions.

  • Trump will win in November.
  • We’ll look back and see last week’s FBI statement as the beginning of the end for Hillary. She’ll never poll higher than she does right now.
  • Trump will pick Democrat Michael Flynn for his running-mate. This creates a “unity ticket” that will win over 5-6% of Democrats and seal the deal in several swing states.
  • Of the swing states, Trump will win FL, GA, NC, VA, PA, OH, IN, AZ and NV.
  • Trump’s cabinet will include prominent Democrats and his policies will be generally moderate. He’ll slow down military spending, cut taxes, and travel the world trying to make “deals.”

In general, I’m optimistic on Trump–both his odds of winning and his presidency. I don’t agree with his policies, but I do think he’ll be wildly successful.

I also think Trump is serious about being a “unifier.” My reasons have to do with a speech he gave in Mara-a-Lago after winning super Tuesday. In it, he said this:

I am a unifier. I know people are going to find that a bit hard to believe but believe me, I am a unifier.

Simple. Straightforward. He says stuff like this all the time, right?

Actually, no. Here is Trump being, for the only time ever, fully transparent. That’s significant. When he says “I know people are going to find that a bit hard to believe,” he reveals that he is very aware of how he comes across. He’s aware of what people think about him. He’s not insane. He’s playing a game and has a strong grasp of how he’s perceived.

He never revealed as much before, and, to my knowledge, never revealed as much since. Part of his game is mind-games–he wants to keep everyone questioning. That’s what good negotiators do, right?

Now, if Trump is aware that it’s”hard to believe” he is a unifier, that means he’s going to do something about it. He’s going to make it easier to believe. His Mike Flynn VP pick at the GOP convention will begin that process.

Do I think Trump is an act? That he’s playing everyone, conning the GOP, and lying all around just to win? Yes. But isn’t that what any winner does? Those who truly want to win?

Just some random thoughts. This is me being very transparent–I could be totally wrong and ruin my credibility on these things forever.

Not that I have any credibility on these things to begin with…

Some predictions for 2016

I’ve learned that more than a few people enjoy my political commentary on this blog. I’ve also discovered that writing about political figures (or, to be more precise, citing political figures as keywords in my posts) draws more traffic to the blog. So here are a few thoughts (and predictions) on the 2016 election.

1. Hillary Clinton is going to lose ground in the primaries simply because she has nowhere to go but down. Bernie Sanders will make her look too stiff and too calculated. Martin O’Malley will have a similar effect and make her seem old and uncharismatic. But she’ll win the primaries by more than a little (as long as she stays healthy, which isn’t something I’d bet on), and Martin O’Malley would make a great running mate.

2. Scott Walker will struggle in New Hampshire. He’ll also bore Republicans of all stripes as he tries desperately to appeal to all of them (which is impossible). He’ll struggle in the debates, too, which is never good for Republicans.

3. Rand Paul will place a consistent second or close third everywhere, no matter the state and no matter what happens in the rest of the field. In this way, he’ll be just like his dad.

4. Jeb Bush’s popularity will rise, slowly and surely and without hiccup, through 2015. He’ll shine in the debates. Skeptical Republicans will realize that he’s really about as conservative as they come, and he’ll win Iowa and New Hampshire and, therefore, the nomination.

I’m a big believer in the power of party—I think at least half of voters choose a candidate based on who they think has the best chance to beat the other party, and not based on candidates’ specific views or policies. In 2015, this effect will only be magnified on the Republican side because the opponent is already known. The drive to simply “beat Hillary” will work in Jeb’s favor since he’s the only one (I think) who has a chance at beating her. I also think Jeb believes this, which is why he doesn’t (and won’t) pander to the far-right.

So Jeb vs. Hillary in the general election, assuming no major scandal or health issue for either of them.

Now, some mysteries in this election are: Marco Rubio (almost impossible not to like, but I don’t think anyone believes he can beat Hillary), Chris Christie (if he runs, could either shine or bomb), and Rick Perry (perfect candidate on paper, with a record to back it up, but no support). Non-mystery, definite losers are: Carly Fiorina (too boring) and Santorum-Huckabee-Carson-Cruz (you know why).

One weird scenario would be if something happens to Hillary–health issue, major scandal, etc.–and she can’t run. No other Democrat has enough clout to put up a serious general election fight. That is, except for Joe Biden. He’s always wanted to be president, and Democrats love him. His campaign could amass in a matter of days. Heck, maybe he’ll run anyways, which would change everything.